Our man Hillis…

Not sure if I ever told you about my Physics teacher at old MHS. Mr. Hillis was a somewhat reserved guy and during Grade XI I didn’t really get to know him, although I did find him to be an excellent teacher. It was in Grade XIII, with only maybe four or five of us in the class that he really shone. He could be funny, he was always pushing us, and he taught me a great deal about Physics and about science in general. One thing I will never forget was his admonition to be wary of scientists with answers. He continually exhorted us to be positive skeptics. Every time we were to do an experiment, he would ask us what we thought the answer might be. Then he would suggest it might just turn out to be the opposite. Seldom did it, but on the occasions that it did, he would smile and simply say: keep this experiment in mind.

I thought about Mr. Hillis the other day after I had received my third or fourth scolding for being either a supporter of Trump, or Covid-19 denier, or climate change troglodyte, or just generally stupid. It was a day where I had forwarded to numerous people a report I had received about a particular analysis of Covid-19. The responses were quite similar to those I’ve received concerning some of my musings about global warming. But this time it actually triggered a memory of my favourite high school science teacher. Now I have to admit I was not a big fan of most sciences – I detested biology (too much like Latin, just a lot of memorization) and until I actually memorized the Periodic Table, I found chemistry rather mundane and the experiments haphazard. But as I loved math, it didn’t take me long to get into Physics. And it was Mr. Hillis’ contention that good science is sceptical science and thus I was convinced that it was a good subject for brain development. As he would often say – just as soon as you think you have it figured out, you will come to a curve in the road and you might even find yourself backtracking, or at least going in a totally different direction!!

So what has all this to do with today? Simply this: if scientists are supposed to be skeptics, why aren’t we having more dialogue on Covid-19 about a Plan B? As I survey the country, in fact the world, we seem to keep falling into cycles – lockdown, ease-up a bit, lockdown, ease-up a bit, and once again, lockdown. What is most troubling is that in the Spring we were advised to behave because there would be a second wave in the autumn, and by and large I think most people did. We were assured that everything was based on good science. For the moment I am going to assume that it was (although even then I had a sinking feeling that politics was more in control than any scientist).

If we knew in the Spring there would be a second wave, why have we been singularly unprepared to deal with it six months later? Why has then been no new approach to grappling with this virus? Back then we were told that a vaccine that could be comfortably bet on would be eighteen to twenty-four months out, so Plan B could not have been to await a vaccine. [If it was then the political leadership should be replaced immediately.] No, it would appear that there wasn’t any pre-planning for the second wave and no science was actually put to use!

Let me explain this a little further, and this is reinforced by an expert I listened to this morning on a ZOOM conversation that I moderate. He was today’s special guest and before you assume that he is some tin-can weirdo, let me say that among his credentials including a Ph.D., a recognized cancer treatment research specialist (including work in Saudi Arabia with the royal family), he was recognized by the Singapore government following the SARS outbreak as a key person in bringing that epidemic under control – he was so valued that he and his wife were offered citizenship in Singapore. While he is now retired, he continues to lecture particularly to medical students and others in the fields of health. He has been studying Covid-19 exhaustively. What are his key findings? Wear a mask & wash your hands, be careful, maybe even circumspect in your presence with others, AND test, trace & track. Notice the absence of the word lockdown. It is his contention that the costs of locking down our world (mental, physical, emotional health issues) far outweigh the costs of thorough testing, tracing and tracking. But in spite of that there has been no concerted effort in the last six months to mount a proper, pan-Canadian testing program with concomitant tracing and tracking. As a result we really have no idea how this virus spreads, who is spreading it, how many are infected. All we know is that cases are rising and the same old response is: lock ‘em down!

Furthermore, when anyone suggests that such a process is counterproductive politicians and well-meaning leading lights immediately suggest that such thinking should earn the purveyors of such talk at least five years on Elsemere Island. After listening this morning I was quite excited – so much so I was told to lower my voice, that perhaps I liked this person because he backed my position. Maybe, except he didn’t know my position before he came on as a guest. And in any event, he is very well qualified to comment on any such viral challenge – he helped quell one. Another interesting fact he brought to our attention: Singapore had over 55,000 cases and only 2 deaths and no shutdown of their economy.

So where are our scientists? Have they become tongue-tied? They’ve certainly changed their minds are other aspects (masks, then no masks, then masks of a better quality / social distancing everywhere, then distancing only if outside your bubble). Why hasn’t the scientific community risen up and said: Test, trace, track until we fully understand this virus? Where is the search for truth? I realize that Dr. Henry (BC’s esteemed Senior Public Health Officer) says such efforts are a great deal of work. But trying to bring back businesses after another lockdown (through a major holiday season) will be a great deal more work. Moreover, the costs we are going to be faced with to help deal with all the mental, social, emotional and even spiritual depression and destruction may well break our social support systems. And I have not even brought up the point that once interest rates start to rise, our kids & grandkids are going to be faced with a fiscal dilemma that may bring our economy crashing to nil (if recent World Bank projections are anywhere near being accurate/correct).

There were other interesting points our guest brought up, but I will leave them for the moment. He is still researching some of them and he’s not sure where the next bend in the road may lead and he doesn’t want to scare you. But for the moment, you can do something – write your MP & your MLA (and if you have time your PM & Premier) and forcefully explain that this country and each province needs an integrated, comprehensive testing-tracing-tracking system accompanied by a robust research program to help us figure this virus out, where it’s going, who is most at risk, and who should we be putting our attention on – and while we do that, let’s let the larger Canadian economy start getting back in gear.

P.S.
And if bars and restaurants need to be open, then places of faith and physical health (gyms & pools) should be as well. If not, churches & gyms should open up alcohol tables to give us the excuse we need to go inside!!